12-10-2024, Thoughts on Advantages

I've been thinking and reading about tempo advantages in Magic: The Gathering recently. There are many articles on the subject and even entire decks, but they haven't satisfied me. What is a tempo? How do we quantify a tempo advantage, other than just pointing to a deck like Delver and teaching it qualitatively? How do we connect the exchange of resources to the ultimate outcome of winning a game? Is winning equivalent to having a tempo advantage at the end of the game? In other words, I will win if my deck is faster than my opponent, accounting for disruption.

Delver Decks

Delver is a very well known archetype that relies on playing a cheap threat like Delver of Secrets, then keeping it alive so that it can attack the opponent, while ensuring that the opponent can't ever catch up.

Tempo from creature efficiency

Player 1 has a Delver of Secrets and a deck that guarantees with high probability that the Delver can attack for 3 the next turn.

Player 2 has a Watchwolf.

While both creatures have the same power and toughness, Delver will be played on turn 1, then attack on turn 2, dealing lethal damage on turn 8. Watchwolf can't keep up as it will be played on turn 2, and won't deal lethal damage until turn 9.

Even if the Watchwolf player has access to 2 mana on turn 1 and plays the Watchwolf on turn 1, the Watchwolf will never win. If Delver is played on turn 1a and Watchwolf on turn 1b, then Delver will win half a turn earlier than Watchwolf. If Watchwolf is player first on turn 1a, then the Delver player can simply block the Watchwolf in a 1 for 1 trade at any point, a privilege denied to the Watchwolf player as Delver has flying.

The delver player can safely ignore the watchwolf in this scenario as Delver has a tempo advantage and the watchwolf cannot disrupt Delver's attacks.

Tempo from mana advantage.

The effectiveness of any creature or other advantage card changes accordingly to how many turns are left in the game. On the final turn, only creatures with immediate impact can be played advantageously, whereas those same creatures might have less of an impact over 4 turns than a slower, but larger creature.

Here is a table that shows the relative tempo generated by various creatures as measured in potential for unblocked damage. Here we will assume that the player has enough mana to play each of them on turn +0.

Based on the previous table, I would choose a creature with haste, like wayward guide beast if I needed help winning this turn. If I want to win next turn, a haste creature gets a x2 multiplier since they can attack both this turn and next. In a vacuum, a gigantic creature like Rotting Regisaur will do the most damage each turn.

While the previous table is relevant for creatures that are played later in the game, mana cost can matter near the beginning of the game. Some creatures deal less damage per turn, but can start attacking faster than more efficient creatures. These creatures have a tempo advantage, as they have the potential to win the game on an earlier turn than the opponant.

Here is another table that show how much tempo each creature generates in the first 5 turns of a game, assuming only 1 land is played each turn.

Notice that Rotting Regisaur is a huge scary creature, but it doesn't naturally outperform Delver until the 5th turn of the game.

If a delver is played on turn 1, then 2 are played on turn turn 2, they can deal a combined 9+6+6 = 21 damage to the opponent by turn 4. By turn 4, we've dealt 7 damage per delver.

Similarly, a Rotting Regisaur player with 3 Regisaurs in hand won't be able to play one until the 3rd turn and will only deal 7 damage. This means that they do the same amount of damage per creature by turn 4, but played fewer creatures.

This means that Delver has a tempo advantage against Rotting Regisaur in the first 4 turns of the game when played on the 1st turn. If Delver player can end the game by the 4th turn, they capitalize on this advantage, otherwise they may be better off playing with Rotting Regisaurs or getting some backup from spells.

A final observation. Delver's performance is identical at the start of the game and later. Most mana denial tactics will not prevent the Delver player from fully utilizing their creature. Similarly, Delver is unaffected by Daze's drawback of returning an island to hand.

Tempo from spells

Creatures are payoff spells for the disruption spells in a tempo deck.

Every turn that Delver attacks, it gets 3 life points closer to victory. If it is destroyed or cannot attack, then its tempo advantage is lost. The non-creature cards in a Delver deck allow Delver to keep attacking, to stay alive, to maintain its mana advantage, etc. Since they preserve Delver's tempo advantages, their defensive effects have an additional offensive payoff from Delver.

Here are some typical spells.

Daze. On the play, Daze ensures that the opponent can't use their first mana to trade a removal card for my Delver. This is significant, because a 1st turn Delver creates the maximum tempo advantage and my opponent would get maximum utility from their removal spell before Delver has done any damage.

Longer term, Daze is effective at forcing my opponent to play with 1 less mana thruought the game, which aids Delver's low mana cost tempo.

Wasteland. Once we have a tempo advantage, i.e. we are racing to victory faster than our opponent, we can maintain it by delaying the opponent's ability to play efficient creatures. Wasteland delays the opponant from playing their Rotting Regisaurs for a turn or more if they don't have a replacement for the land they have lost.

Brainstorm. Brainstorm converts a mana advantage into a card quality advantage which leads to cards that generate tempo through Delver. It ensures that the Delver player probably sees more spells than the opponant as it can shuffle lands back into the deck when used with a fetch-land or Ponder.

Force of Will. Converts card advantage into tempo as it can stop the opponant from killing Delver and can steal tempo from an enemy whose threat is too fast.

Delver Summary.

Delver players play a mana efficient card like Delver that has good short term tempo.

The player then keeps it alive with Daze and Force of Will, while denying the opponent mana with Daze and Wasteland. This allows for the cheap creature to realize its advantage thru attacks and maintain its advantage over a longer time horizon.

Normally, the Rotting Regisaur player plays their creatures on turn 3, then races past Delver on Turn 5 (14 damage vs. 12 damage). If the Rotting Regisaur player can't resolve their dinosaur until Turn 4, then they won't pull ahead until Turn 7 (21 damage vs. 18 damage). If the Delver player plays another creature, destroys the Rotting Regisaur, delays the dinosaur by even 1 more turn, or just casts lightning bolt, then the tiny Delver of Secrets wins the race.

The player who wins fastest wins, not necessarily the player who plays the most powerful spells. This is why Legacy is filled with 1 mana spells.

Mana advantages translate into Tempo Advantages.

Card Quality translates into Tempo

Card Quantity translates into Tempo.

The Mindskinner

I want to try incorporating lesson in Tempo into my construction of a deck based off of The Mindskinner.

Natural Tempo

The following table shows that they have equal early game tempo in a vacuum. They both win the game by themselves on turn 8.

Here is another table comparing their late-game effectiveness:

Observations:

• Delver of Secrets has greater tempo than The Mindskinner only on turn 1a. On all other turns, The Mindskinner wins!
• Delver needs to be played 2.5 turns before The Mindskinner to win.
• Delver is neither susceptible to mana disruption, nor benefits from mana acceleration. The Mindskinner could fall victim to mana disruption, such as Wasteland, Daze, or even Daze's drawback, but it can also benefit from mana acceleration cards such as Exploration.
• Since The Mindskinner mills cards, rather than dealing damage, the opponant may have naturally antagonistic effects in their deck that nullify The Mindskinner's attacking effectiveness.

Combo Tempo

The Mindskinner pretends to operate in the realm of card milling, but what if we look at its incredible stats in terms of dealing damage or 'loss of life' effects.

Using just 3 cards and 5 mana, we can win the game on turn 4 by doubling The Mindskinner's power and flinging a 20 power creature at the opponent.

Generating Tempo

What could go wrong?

Our goal when choosing spells is to maximize The Mindskinner's potential while disrupting enemy strategies that would be superior to ours without the spell.

We must ask ourselves in which situations would we have a tempo disadvantage and what spells can improve our Mindskinner's chances.

How can we play The Mindskinner at the optimal moment?

Ideally, we want to play Skinner as soon as we have 3 mana, so it can begin attacking or being flinged. With just 4 copies of it in a 60 card deck, we will only see it in our opening hand 40% of the time (2 out of every 5 games) and we'll have it in hand by turn 3 on the play only 49% of the time.

According to my simulation using decks with 30 lands, we'll only have The Mindskinner in hand and 3 lands on the battlefield with probability 44%.

Below are the results of a simulation that I wrote to try to determine the relative effectiveness of different tutors and cantrips. I first calculated the probability of playing the Mindskinner on turn 3 and later for a 60 card deck with 30 lands and 4 The Mindskinners. I then calculated how these odds shifted for 60 card decks with 30 lands, 4 the Mindskinner and 4 copies of an additional spell.

I think the most important thing to note is which cards have a bigger impact on this goal and which do not.

What if the opponent just tries to kill The Mindskinner?

We can protect The Mindskinner with cards like the following:

We can also use an instant speed Mindskinner payoff spell or ability while the enemy removal spell is on the stack.

What if the opponent tries to counter The Mindskinner?

What if the opponent tries to discard The Mindskinner or remove all copies of it from my deck?

How can I ensure that I have game winning spells at the optimal moment?

One approach would be to tutor for instants or sorceries

Another approach would be to imagine several paths to victory. I'd like to collect Game Winning spells that are effective at winning the game when combined in various ways and ideally have futher alternate uses in the deck.

1. Berserk Fling
2. The MindSkinner Attacks. Opponant declares no blockers and passes priority. Cast Dress down. The Mindskinner deals 10 combat damage to opponent in damage step. Cast Burn Together, Thud, or Fling.
   Dress Down Burn Together
3. I'm skeptical of 3+ card combos. Also, haste is more helpful to mill the opponent than to burn them to death.
   Reckless Charge Assault Strobe Berserk

Picking a winning set of Game Winners?

I'm thinking that if I can pick 3 different spells that all work well together, that will be the best plan and it can scale from 1 - 12 cards in the deck.

I'm thinking of Dress Down, Thud/Fling, and Berserk.

What if my opponent tries to interfere with my mana?

This is a very threatening line of attack, because we need 3 blue mana for The Mindskinner and may need several other colors for the most efficient spells we'd like to play.

I'll start by assuming that every land will be an Island to support playing Thwart and reliable fetch land tutoring. I'll probably treat Cavern of Souls like a spell if I decide to include is and exclude it from consideration in the mana base. Then I'll splash other colors for spells that justify their color's inclusion in the deck.

Assuming that I will want to play with 3 or more colors, my deck will be susceptible to Wasteland. Given this fact, I want to lean into this vulnerability and exploit it for an advantage. I'm eager to try out Teferi's Response as I think it do things like protecting my red mana until I can cast Fling.

What if my opponent is playing a deck that wins faster than turn 3?

Here is a breakdown of different disruption spells and which turns they can be played on, assuming 1 land per turn.

Let's create a deck!

Now that we've addressed some of the things that might go wrong and effective cards to deal with these problems, I want to build a draft Mindskinner deck that wins the game on turn 4 with high probability, but also plays cards that steal enough my opponent's to win before they do.

First we add some combo pieces.

Sprinkle in some card quality effects. (The above percentages are based on a deck that contains the cards below.)

Hmmm. I wish I could get away with fewer tutors. I feel like they sink too much into offense. What if I could have realistic expectations of playing The Mindskinner on a turn where it will be protected and methods to ensure the game goes that long?

Let's try again from first principles.

Let's support the offense thru defense.

Goal 1: Hit first 3 land drops. This will allow us to cast The Mindskinner and play Thwart.

In a deck with 4 Brainstorm, 4 Ponder, and 4 Once Upon a Time we will need 17 lands to have 3 untapped lands turn 3 with ≥ 80% likelihood and 15/13 lands to for the same goal by turn 4/5.

Similarly, we'll need 14/12/11 lands to have two untapped lands by turns 2/3/4 with ≥ 80% likelihood.

4 Brainstorm + 4 Ponder + 4 Once Upon a Time

Here is a table that illustrates how many lands you will need to achieve untapped lands by a specific turn with ≥ 80% likelihood.

4 Brainstorm + 4 Ponder

Most Delver Decks rely on Brainstorm and Ponder, so let's run the numbers again, but without Once Upon a time:

Using this Delver Decklist by Reid Duke circa 2023 as a reference, Delver decks only play 15 colored lands. This means they are perfectly happy getting their 2nd land on turn 3 if need be. also have 45 useful spells, which can all be cast with 0 - 2 mana.

If we wanted to compete with this Delver deck in terms of spell density, we would need to play 4xOnce Upon a Time and expect to play The Mindskinner on turn 4 or we could go without it and expect to play it on turn 5.

These numbers suggest that Once Upon a Time could be side-boarded in to The Mindskinner deck for 2-3 lands, along with an additional utility creature. I don't think I will play Once Upon a Time unless I play with an additional creature beyond The Mindskinner or I feel that cards such as Wasteland are earning their keep.

Strategic Trade-offs

Draft 1

I'll start brewing now, taking into account my thoughts on various cards from my previous article from 11.18.2024.

I'll start by fulfilling my mana requirements.

Next I'll include my win condition:

How will I survive against opposing Mana Denial?

Here is the deck that I brought to the FNM tournament on 12-20-2025 or 12-13-2025.